Golden Globe Predictions

Holidays are over and awards season is ramping up, which means things have been slow as hell work-wise in LA for the last month or so, but on the plus side I've had ample time and opportunity to watch most of the nominees already. This week is a pretty eventful one, with traffic already snarled at Santa Monica and Wilshire for to the Golden Globes tonight. Then on Thursday morning we'll get the announcement of the Oscar nominees. So I figure now's a good time to lay it all out there and give ya some stuff that's predictive, though not necessarily preferential.

Although I've thoroughly enjoyed -- and will be pulling for -- a handful of the GG-nominated television shows this year ("Fargo," "True Detective," "Game of Thrones," "Orange is the New Black," "Veep") I'm only predicting the films here, 'cause that's my jam. Deal with it.

Like I said, I'm pretty prepared this year: out of 36 total nominated films I've only missed two due to limited availability and other priorities -- Cake [Jennifer Aniston, Best Actress - Drama nominee], and Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem [Best Foreign Language Film nominee]. Here's a link to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association site with all the nominees. I posted my tentative favorite films of 2014 in my last entry, and recent screenings of Selma¹, Into the Woods², Big Eyes³, American Sniper⁴, and Unbroken⁵ did not displace any personal favorites or alter that post whatsoever.

Here's what my crystal ball⁶ says will transpire this evening:

Best Original Song:

"Glory" from Selma initially wins, but out of nowhere is challenged to a no-holds-barred cage match by "Let it Go," which won last year's Oscar but is still terribly bitter and grudgy at the HFPA for giving its award to freaking Bono last year instead. With the U2 frontman already out of the way, the battle becomes mired in even more controversy after LiG throws an illicit white powdery substance in Glory's eyes. Insisting it was nothing more than snow (yeah, right) officials allow the match to continue, and history is made with LiG winning a bloody, grueling best-of-three pinfalls, then the announcing its retirement to never be heard again, much to the delight of literally everyone, everywhere.

Best Original Score:

The Oscars have already taken an odd⁷ stance by eliminating Antonio Sanchez's vibrant percussion-based score for Birdman from their list of eligible nominees. The GGs are much less uptight about these things, maaaan. Expect the buzz to carry Sanchez to a win here, and then another buzz to totally get some people together at Runyon for a drum circle/yoga sesh around sunset. You in?

Best Screenplay:

No splitting things up with separate winners for Adapted/Original screenplays here. Hell no! Five will enter but only one will emerge victorious. Like Thunderdome, but everybody's using Final Draft instead of rusty chainsaws. Birdman survives, because he can fly, duh.

Best Animated Film:

All were great in their own way, but I found The Boxtrolls and The Lego Movie were the best at crafting an original story without falling into too many traps and cliches. Giving the edge to the Legos for the especially innovative, multi-layered world building.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Tough call, as the four I've seen were all beautiful but none stood head and shoulders above the crowd as we've had with past winners Amour and A Separation. My personal fave was Ida, but I suspect Leviathan will win. Expecting a change or two in the Oscar noms.

Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

The film is more than just a boy's journey, and Arquette is the true heart and soul of the film.

Best Supporting Actor

JK Simmons, Whiplash

I would say, "good job," but I'm afraid of getting scalped by a cymbal.

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy:

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

I could argue that Moore was the best here (and one of the few things I unequivocally enjoyed about Maps to the Stars), but (spoiler!) she's going to win in another category, so rather than pick an unlikely double win I'll go with Emily Blunt.

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy:

Michael Keaton, Birdman

A feisty comeback performance, and since he's in a GG category with slighter competition compared with the Drama section, it's much easier to pick a win for Keaton now than it will be once the Oscars roll around.

Best Actress, Drama:

Julianne Moore, Still Alice
In a pretty strong year, she's still going to run away with this. Heartbreaking stuff.

Best Actor, Drama:
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Here's where things get tough. I would day Carell is the odd man out to Keaton once we narrow down the five Oscar noms, and the others are all completely worthy, but I'm torn between two: Gyllenhaal's intense, ghoulishly charming turn in Nightcrawler, and Redmayne, who transforms into Stephen Hawking down to the cellular level. Flipping a coin comes up heads for Redmayne.

Best Director:

Alejandro González Iñárritu - Birdman
With the best picture categories splitting what I think are the two top competitors for the year, Boyhood and Birdman, here's where we may see where things are turning for the top award on Oscar night. At the very least I expect he HFPA to give the edge to the latter on Sunday.

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy:

Hoping for Grand Budapest Hotel, but will be satisfied with Birdman.

Best Picture, Drama:

Rooting for Nightcrawler, but can't deny Boyhood.

Extra special bonus happy fun time! While I'm certainly expecting some surprises, here are my predictions/hopes for some of the major Oscar nominees to be announced Thursday. Perhaps a reaction post or two after the announcements are made, but for now, enjoy the show!

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<sup>1. Selma is a lovely film, but it's been a year of biopic supersaturation, and it's not the strongest of the bunch. ↩
2. I enjoyed Into the Woods, but it hacked out some of my favorite numbers and completely shredded the last act. ↩
3. Ugh. ↩
4. No. Just...no. ↩
5. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr. Terrible waste of a great true story and above the line talent. ↩
6. It also told me there was a basement in the Alamo, so it's been wrong before. ↩
7. Read: "totally f****d up." ↩</sup>