Obligatory Slapdash Predictions

Alas, not to be.

The last few weeks I've been expending every ounce of energy into my first attempt at being a first assistant director on a feature film -- ultra low budget, but still a nice little step up in responsibility -- so although I came out of January having already seen the major hitters out of tonight's nominated films I simply didn't have the time to take in some of the smaller releases that only received wider availability in recent days. We wrapped on Friday, so yesterday involved a few post-shoot tasks, then the rest of the day was dedicated to a triple-header of all of the short film programs in Pasadena. Six (6) hours, one (1) intermission trip to Lucky Boy, and one (1) parking ticket later, I feel I can make a pretty good stab at all of the categories this year, so here's the quick and dirty about the gold and sparkly.

By the numbers
All noms are here. 60 different films received a nomination, counting 15 in the short categories and another 5 documentary features. The only feature from the Foreign Language and Animated features to pull an additional nom in another category is the B&W Polish drama Ida, getting a deserving cinematography nod for its crisp, moody grays and non-standard framing.

Of the 60, these are the 8 I haven't seen and cannot comment on, but none are huge threats to take home gold tonight --
Docs: Last Days in Vietnam, The Salt of the Earth, and Virunga
Foreign Language: Timbuktu, Wild Tales
Original Song: Beyond the Lights, Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
Animated: Song of the Sea

Now for the rundown of my favorites and Officially Official Predictions (We're from Official!), starting with the shorts and working up to the big guns:

Short Film -- Live Action
Annual warning that I am terrible at picking the winning shorts -- I typically hate the winners, if that helps you at all in your Oscar party pool.

Favorite: "Butter Lamp" -- Charming and simple with a brilliant little twist. Sometimes less is more.

Prediction: It's probably a toss up between the saccharine crowd pleaser "Boogaloo and Graham" and the emotionally manipulative "The Phone Call." The latter has more star cred with a Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent doing the darkest Bob Newhart bit ever, but I'll go with "Boogaloo."


Short Film -- Animated
Favorite: "A Single Life" -- Quick, witty, and legitimately hilarious.

Prediction: "Feast" -- the Disney short that was tacked onto Big Hero 6 is honestly one of its best in years due to sharp direction and fluid transitions; bounds better than past winner "Paperman," through it treads the same emotional ground.


Documentary Short Subject
Favorite: "Joanna" -- Battles with cancer are de rigueur here, but this one is so personal and undeniably beautiful that it's hard to resist. Only length (40 minutes) and pace hurt its case (Yes, it's my favorite even though I dozed off once or twice. Maybe that says more about a weak year for the category.)

Prediciton: "Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1" -- Strangely coincidental that there is also a Live Action Short nominee ("The Phone Call") about a crisis hotline worker and that their messages are practically at odds with each other. In its real life snapshot of crisis workers handling just a handful of tense calls from suicidal vets this one gets the message right.


Documentary Feature
Again, this is a category I can't attest to a strong favorite as I've only seen the presumed frontrunners. Laura Poitras' fly-on-the-wall CitizenFour is one of the most essential political docs of the last few years. Lately though, the academy has steered clear of political controversy and celebrated to more feel-good humanist stories, (Undefeated, Searching for Sugar Man, Twenty Feet From Stardom) so Finding Vivian Maier has a legit shot to upset.

Prediction: Finding Vivian Maier


Sound Mixing & Sound Editing
Prediction: Expect a win in both for American Sniper, though Whiplash deserves kudos in the mixing category.


Visual Effects
Think Interstellar is a lock for doing its best 2001 impression? Then you forgot about Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. We're reaching the point where motion capture performances are so immersive that we don't even think about them anymore, but this was a huge leap forward.
Prediction: DotPotA


Original Song:
Favorite: As fun as it would be to say "The LEGO Movie won an Oscar!" it just isn't gonna happen.
Prediction: "Glory" from Selma


Original Score:
Desplat is quickly becoming the Susan Lucci of film composers. Splitting the vote isn't going to help his this year.
Prediction: Jóhann Jóhannsson, The Theory of Everything


Makeup and Hairstyling:
Favorite & Prediction: Guardians of the Galaxy -- delivering so much more than fake noses and weird haircuts.


Costume Design & Production Design:
Favorite & Prediction for both: The Grand Budapest Hotel -- It's not always the case, but this is one of those years (as with Gatsby last year) where these two went hand-in-hand to create a quirky, immersive world built entirely from scratch.

Animated Feature:
Favorite: The Tale of Princess Kaguya. Beautifully restrained with a throwback watercolor/chalk/charcoal look, but not without its eye-popping sequences that completely catch the viewer off guard (one of which is teased in this trailer). Would expect nothing less from Studio Ghibli.
Prediction: How to Train Your Dragon 2 holds off Baymax to repeat its GG win.

Dang, time's running out and there's fajitas still to make for dinner, so I'm gonna speed the rest of this up...

Foreign Language Film:
Favorite & Prediction: Ida

Editing:
Favorite: Whiplash 
Prediction: Boyhood


Cinematography: 
Favorite: Ida
Prediction: Birdman


Adapted Screenplay:
Favorite: Whiplash
Prediction: The Imitation Game

Original Screenplay: 
Favorite & Prediction: Because it's probably running 3rd behind the Boy and the Bird in the top categories, Grand Budapest Hotel will get its love here.

From here on out I really don't see much changing from the Golden Globes' results, so I'll just run down the rest quickly.

Overarching Prediction: Lots of white people.

Supporting Actress:
Favorite & Prediction: Patricia Arquette for Boyhood


Supporting Actor:
Holy Lock: JK Simmons for Whiplash


Lead Actress:
Another easy one to agree with: Julianne Moore for Still Alice.


Lead Actor:
Favorite: Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler. Yes, I know he's not nominated. No, I'm not still bitter about it.
Prediction: Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything


Director:
Favorite: Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel. One of these days, Wes.
Prediction: Richard Linklater for Boyhood


Best Picture:
Favorite: Of the nominees, I go back and forth between Birdman and Grand Budapest Hotel as my pick of the year.
Prediction: Boyhood was imperfect but a monumental, deserving achievement.

Golden Globe Predictions

Holidays are over and awards season is ramping up, which means things have been slow as hell work-wise in LA for the last month or so, but on the plus side I've had ample time and opportunity to watch most of the nominees already. This week is a pretty eventful one, with traffic already snarled at Santa Monica and Wilshire for to the Golden Globes tonight. Then on Thursday morning we'll get the announcement of the Oscar nominees. So I figure now's a good time to lay it all out there and give ya some stuff that's predictive, though not necessarily preferential.

Although I've thoroughly enjoyed -- and will be pulling for -- a handful of the GG-nominated television shows this year ("Fargo," "True Detective," "Game of Thrones," "Orange is the New Black," "Veep") I'm only predicting the films here, 'cause that's my jam. Deal with it.

Like I said, I'm pretty prepared this year: out of 36 total nominated films I've only missed two due to limited availability and other priorities -- Cake [Jennifer Aniston, Best Actress - Drama nominee], and Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem [Best Foreign Language Film nominee]. Here's a link to the Hollywood Foreign Press Association site with all the nominees. I posted my tentative favorite films of 2014 in my last entry, and recent screenings of Selma¹, Into the Woods², Big Eyes³, American Sniper⁴, and Unbroken⁵ did not displace any personal favorites or alter that post whatsoever.

Here's what my crystal ball⁶ says will transpire this evening:

Best Original Song:

"Glory" from Selma initially wins, but out of nowhere is challenged to a no-holds-barred cage match by "Let it Go," which won last year's Oscar but is still terribly bitter and grudgy at the HFPA for giving its award to freaking Bono last year instead. With the U2 frontman already out of the way, the battle becomes mired in even more controversy after LiG throws an illicit white powdery substance in Glory's eyes. Insisting it was nothing more than snow (yeah, right) officials allow the match to continue, and history is made with LiG winning a bloody, grueling best-of-three pinfalls, then the announcing its retirement to never be heard again, much to the delight of literally everyone, everywhere.

Best Original Score:

The Oscars have already taken an odd⁷ stance by eliminating Antonio Sanchez's vibrant percussion-based score for Birdman from their list of eligible nominees. The GGs are much less uptight about these things, maaaan. Expect the buzz to carry Sanchez to a win here, and then another buzz to totally get some people together at Runyon for a drum circle/yoga sesh around sunset. You in?

Best Screenplay:

No splitting things up with separate winners for Adapted/Original screenplays here. Hell no! Five will enter but only one will emerge victorious. Like Thunderdome, but everybody's using Final Draft instead of rusty chainsaws. Birdman survives, because he can fly, duh.

Best Animated Film:

All were great in their own way, but I found The Boxtrolls and The Lego Movie were the best at crafting an original story without falling into too many traps and cliches. Giving the edge to the Legos for the especially innovative, multi-layered world building.

Best Foreign Language Film:

Tough call, as the four I've seen were all beautiful but none stood head and shoulders above the crowd as we've had with past winners Amour and A Separation. My personal fave was Ida, but I suspect Leviathan will win. Expecting a change or two in the Oscar noms.

Best Supporting Actress:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

The film is more than just a boy's journey, and Arquette is the true heart and soul of the film.

Best Supporting Actor

JK Simmons, Whiplash

I would say, "good job," but I'm afraid of getting scalped by a cymbal.

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy:

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

I could argue that Moore was the best here (and one of the few things I unequivocally enjoyed about Maps to the Stars), but (spoiler!) she's going to win in another category, so rather than pick an unlikely double win I'll go with Emily Blunt.

Best Actor, Musical/Comedy:

Michael Keaton, Birdman

A feisty comeback performance, and since he's in a GG category with slighter competition compared with the Drama section, it's much easier to pick a win for Keaton now than it will be once the Oscars roll around.

Best Actress, Drama:

Julianne Moore, Still Alice
In a pretty strong year, she's still going to run away with this. Heartbreaking stuff.

Best Actor, Drama:
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Here's where things get tough. I would day Carell is the odd man out to Keaton once we narrow down the five Oscar noms, and the others are all completely worthy, but I'm torn between two: Gyllenhaal's intense, ghoulishly charming turn in Nightcrawler, and Redmayne, who transforms into Stephen Hawking down to the cellular level. Flipping a coin comes up heads for Redmayne.

Best Director:

Alejandro González Iñárritu - Birdman
With the best picture categories splitting what I think are the two top competitors for the year, Boyhood and Birdman, here's where we may see where things are turning for the top award on Oscar night. At the very least I expect he HFPA to give the edge to the latter on Sunday.

Best Picture, Musical/Comedy:

Hoping for Grand Budapest Hotel, but will be satisfied with Birdman.

Best Picture, Drama:

Rooting for Nightcrawler, but can't deny Boyhood.

Extra special bonus happy fun time! While I'm certainly expecting some surprises, here are my predictions/hopes for some of the major Oscar nominees to be announced Thursday. Perhaps a reaction post or two after the announcements are made, but for now, enjoy the show!

---

<sup>1. Selma is a lovely film, but it's been a year of biopic supersaturation, and it's not the strongest of the bunch. ↩
2. I enjoyed Into the Woods, but it hacked out some of my favorite numbers and completely shredded the last act. ↩
3. Ugh. ↩
4. No. Just...no. ↩
5. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrr. Terrible waste of a great true story and above the line talent. ↩
6. It also told me there was a basement in the Alamo, so it's been wrong before. ↩
7. Read: "totally f****d up." ↩</sup>

That's a Wrap on 2014!

Hey there, and happy 2015 to all! I haven’t returned to this space since the Oscars back in March. Since then I’ve been busy, very fortunate to continue to work and grow in the industry -- various roles on a few indie features, a short, some commercials and a couple of web-only projects. Even got to hang out in the background a few times. Viva Duane! It’s been a fun first year in LA and I’m looking forward to pushing ahead and making more things happen.

And you bet your ass I’ve been watching a lot of movies. I somehow exactly kept pace with last year’s number at 186 by my count, because of course I keep track of these things. Click through to see the full list. A solid third of these (66 and counting) are from 2014 (or from 2013 but only released widely enough this year to be eligible during the upcoming awards season). Compared with previous years I’m already in pretty good shape heading into the Golden Globes which hopefully portends well to being ahead of the game for the Oscars, nominations still to be announced on Jan 15th. There are a few newly released key players that I haven’t had a chance to see yet: Selma, Big Eyes, and Into the Woods are on the docket for the next fortnight or so. I’m definitely loving the plethora of theaters and stuffed-to-the-gills early release schedules here! Resolving to see more indie features at smaller venues in 2015.

I’ll catch up with a bunch of quick hits for 2014 flicks, starting today with my favorite features that were released in the past 12 months. Top 10 in no particular order:

A Most Violent Year (wr./dir. J.C. Chandor) - Hot off the presses, a gritty, simmering opus with Godfather-esque leanings, Chandor's newest success shows a steady hand that should continue to deliver seething drama in years to come. Intense performances by Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain.

Under the Skin (dir. Jonathan Glazer) - Exposition can be tricky business. One of my biggest pet peeves is a script that over-explains the action to the audience or hammers home themes through on-the-nose dialogue (I’m looking sideways at you here, Interstellar). So it was refreshing to see this mesmerizing and unsettling sci-fi/horror hybrid simmering with underlying themes of isolation, social interaction, and sexual agency. It alternates stretches of throbbing, dreadful anticipation with moments of overwhelming electricity. Most importantly, it doesn’t attempt to explain things at all, leaving the viewer in full on decipher mode and wondering, “The hell did I just see?” I love that mode.

Inherent Vice (wr./dir. PT Anderson) - Based on Thomas Pynchon’s novel, it’s a twisting, episodic neo-detective rollick with a down and out P.I. who is more addled than hard-boiled. Too deep and complex to completely absorb in one or two viewings, it’s the darker, sexier, more introspective cousin to The Big Lebowski. I’m sure my initial rating will only improve with time.

The Babadook (wr./dir. Jennifer Kent) - A vibrant, perfectly-crafted horror film with edgy, unnerving performances from Essie Davis and Noah Wiseman. Relying smartly on suggestion and imagination to provide creeping tension and dreadful scares, it is underscored by strong character development replete with an acidic twist of maternal guilt and feminist empowerment. Bonus points for the unconventional ending.

Whiplash - (wr./dir. Damien Chazelle) - Miles Teller pours his sweat onto the screen and JK Simmons delivers an award-worthy supporting performance of manipulative intimidation under the guise of mentorship. It’s Black Swan meets Full Metal Jacket, but with drums and jazz combos instead of bullets and ballet.

Jodorowsky’s Dune (dir. Frank Pavich) - Alejandro Jodorwsky is one of cinemas most original beasts, and if you ask me his films (El Topo, The Holy Mountain, Santa Sangre) are the absolute pinnacle of tripped out cult classics. With this documentary we get a little peek at perhaps one of the most influential unfinished films of the century, his epic planned adaptation of Frank Herbert’s seminal sci-fi novel. May not appeal to those who don’t already have an affection for Jodorowsky’s unique brand of madness, but for me it was like chipping away at a mountain to get a glimpse at a long lost Holy Grail.

Nightcrawler (wr./dir. Dan Gilroy) - With Jake Gyllenhaal’s gaunt, wiry Louis Bloom, Gilroy gave us one of the creepiest, most memorable characters of the year. He also delivered a taut, edgy thriller complete with a spectacular chase scene. It feels like a spiritual sibling to Taxi Driver, shifting the focus from the mean streets of NYC to the gritty reality underlying LA’s image-obsessed, media-driven gloss. Along with Inherent Vice, I felt that I soaked in more here by living in LA for the past year, as knowing the geography of the city lent the action a new layer of immediacy (and lunacy) that I previously never could have appreciated.

The Grand Budapest Hotel (wr./dir. Wes Anderson) - Mr. Anderson continues to up his game and deliver the goods by melding the wide-eyed romanticism of Moonrise Kingdom with the sprawling weirdness of The Royal Tenenbaums. A hilarious, beautiful, magical journey.

Boyhood (wr./dir. Richard Linklater) - Takes a little time to find its tone and makes a few melodramatic missteps here and there, but it’s ultimately a tremendous achievement, reminiscent of Michael Apted’s 7 Up documentary series in its scope and delivery. Patricia Arquette is the story’s heart and soul, and the parallel line with Ethan Hawke’s dad progressing through “Manhood” is a brilliant character/story understroke.

Birdman: or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance (dir. Alejandro González Iñárritu) - A weird, fantastic, thoughtful meditation as well as a dizzying technical juggernaut. The winking script and turns by Keaton and Norton, especially, deliver punches that land over and over again, oftentimes with jabs directed at themselves. I was not exactly a fan of the “2nd ending” and did not dig Emma Stone here, but those are minor quibbles for an experience that was still probably my favorite of the year. 

Honorable Mention:

The Wind Rises (wr./dir. Hayao Miyazaki) - Any opportunity to watch Miyazaki’s genius on a large screen is a rewarding experience, and his latest (and probably final) was no exception. A slight notch below his masterpieces, it’s still a beautiful, wistful bow for a towering master.

Guardians of the Galaxy (dir. James Gunn) - Pure fun. Star Wars for a new generation?

Blue Ruin (wr./dir. Jeremy Saulnier) - Great gritty little indie revenge flick. Bullish brutality shaded with some interesting twists and emotional complexity.

The One I Love (dir. Charlie McDowell) - Another fun, twisty indie with a clever, sci-fi tinged concept, this time picking apart the minutiae of romantic relationships by holding up a mirror. Imperfect and strange, yet incredibly entertaining.

Only Lovers Left Alive (wr./dir. Jim Jarmusch) - A hip, sultry twist on the immortal ennui of vampires set amongst the crumbling ruins of Tangiers and Detroit.

The Raid 2 (wr./dir. Gareth Evans) - While it didn’t hit me in the face quite as hard as the first one that is only a slight fault. The fight scenes are just as brutal and impeccably choreographed. Total killer.

The Imitation Game (dir. Morten Tyldum) - Bandersnatch Camphorbinge (sp?) is impeccable as Alan Turing, WWII Enigma code-breaker, father of the computer, and one of the most important unsung, tragic figures of the last 100 years. Takes gross liberties with the true story, but still delivers exciting historical drama mixed with relevant social commentary.

Aaaaand for good measure -- with the caveat that I and have thus far boycotted The Interview and thankfully avoided Tusk -- the worst thing I managed to watch all year was...

Annie (dir. Will Gluck) - Next stop, Dudsville. Yeah, I watched it and while it doesn't take a genius to transition the story into the modern age it’s flat, pandering, and unimaginative. The remixed original songs lack heart and the new ones lack punch. All it took was Bobby Cannavale hamming it up and a quick cameo by Patricia Clarkson to remind me how much I would rather be watching The Station Agent...Or anything else really. Props to Rose Byrne for being the only one who looks like she’s having some fun with it.

I hear football and beer calling my name, so best wishes to all in the new year and more happy days ahead!

Breakneck Oscars Thing 2014

Well, a lot has happened since I last gave this space any attention, and I’m a little surprised it hasn’t up and run off with another fella. Hooray to the unending preservation of digital information. First things: I no longer live in the Midwest! After much deliberation I decided to take this show on the road and I have relocated to the City of Angels. I documented my cross-country trip with a GoPro Hero3 in tow and spent the first couple of months in California crashed on a buddy’s couch, looking for housing, starting the job search, and furiously cobbling together a travelogue/cinematic homage combining the resulting footage with my digitized film collection. I’m pretty proud of the end result, which I entitled “West & South,” so please click on through to ch-ch-check it out!

I’m back here because Oscar season is almost past, and I’ve been getting asked if a rundown is in order this year. This week was pretty busy -- I'm working long, fruitful days on a "demon horror fantasy noir" -- so I’m not going to be able watch the ceremony this year and won't be able to be as in-depth as last year. Hey, take what you can get, m'kay?

Here are the numbers:

• 57 different feature films and shorts received nominations this year... (of which I've seen 52)
• ...resulting in 121 total nominations (of which I can account for 116)
• Last year I was 43/52 and 113/122 last year, respectively, and was about 65% on predictions. (Annual caveat: I am always terrible at predicting the shorts.) 

The five nominees I haven't been able to see are:

• The Book Thief - nominated for Best Original Score
• Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom -- nominated for Best Original Song
• Ernest & Celestine - nominated for Best Animated Feature
• The Missing Picture -- nominated for Best Foreign Language Film
• Omar -- nominated for Best Foreign Language Film

While there are plenty of movies worth seeing, in my opinion this has been a fairly weak year at the top and will be a pretty tough year to predict. Additionally, since the expansion to 9+ best picture nominees a few years ago, this is the first time there were no standouts from either Foreign Language or Animation to earn any "Big 6*/9**" nominations and maybe foreshadow the category win (as has been the case the last few years with Amour (nominated for Best Pic, Actress, Director, Screenplay...won Best Foreign Language Film), A Separation (Best Original Screenplay nom...won Best FL Film), Toy Story 3 & Up (both had Best Pic and Screenplay noms...Best Animated Feature wins).

* Best Picture, Director, and the four acting categories...

** ...plus Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography

When necessary, as before, I will make a point to differentiate between my favorite and my prediction. And away we go!

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:

• “Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?”
• “The Voorman Problem”
• “That Wasn’t Me”
• “Just Before Losing Everything”
• “Helium”

The first two are funny little crowd pleasers, and I especially loved the twisted simplicity of "The Voorman Problem." The other three take us into tough territory, with African child soldiers, domestic violence, and pediatric terminal illness on the plate, respectively. I'm going with the one that I felt unfolded the most compellingly, with slow, building tension.

Prediction: "Just Before Losing Everything"
 

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:

• “Feral”
• “Get a Horse!”
• “Mr. Hublot”
• “Possessions”
• “Room on the Broom”

I feel it's probably a two horse race, and Disney's "Horse!" is certainly the most widely seen, since it played theatrically in front of Frozen. It's a fast-paced whirlwind of classic cartoon gags, for sure, but it doesn't hold a candle to "Mr. Hublot's" detailed steampunk world-building and visual storytelling.

Prediction: "Mr. Hublot"

Best Documentary, Short Subject
Nominees:

• “Cavedigger”
• “Facing Fear”
• “Karama Has No Walls”
• “The Lady In Number 6”
• “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall”

Alice Herz-Sommer, the subject of "The Lady in Number 6," just passed away last week at the age of 110, having survived the Holocaust while playing piano in a Czech concentration camp. Sympathy vote might help push it over "Karama Has No Walls," an absolutely astounding first-person video account of a turning point in the Yemeni uprising and a perfect companion piece to this year's essential feature documentary, The Square.

Prediction: "The Lady in Number 6"

Best Documentary, Feature

Nominees:

• The Act of Killing
• Cutie and the Boxer
• Dirty Wars
• The Square
• 20 Feet from Stardom

20 Feet from stardom is the mainstream, populist choice, but while it is great, it doesn't have the vitality and importance of the other two top contenders. As I just mentioned, The Square is absolutely breathtaking and a living, breathing document of a revolution that is cycling through triumphs and failures even as we speak. The Act of Killing is like no documentary I've ever seen, the closest being perhaps the bizarre, quintessential Japanese doc, The Emperor's Naked Army Marches On. While it pushes the envelope, it might be a tad too controversial for voters.

Additional note: All five nominees are streaming on Netflix, so I encourage everyone to check them out when you get a chance.

Want: The Act of Killing
Will: The Square

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Click through for score samples

Nominees:

• The Book Thief -- John Williams
• Gravity -- Steven Price
• Her -- William Butler, Andy Koyama
• Saving Mr. Banks -- Thomas Newman
• Philomena  -- Alexandre Desplat

Desplat is one of my favorites working these days, but there has been a recent turn to hip, young rock stars scoring hip, young films, and Arcade Fire did a pretty damn fine job with "Her," even if they were way better before they, like completely sold out and stuff. Gchuhh, I know, right?

Want: Philomena
Will: Her

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:

Despicable Me 2 -- “Happy"

Frozen -- "Let It Go"

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom -- "Ordinary Love"

Her -- "The Moon Song"

[Also, Nominated, then disqualified -- Alone Yet Not Alone -- "Alone Yet Not Alone" -- 
Read the story behind this controversy.]

I'd go with the breathy, twee simplicity of "The Moon Song," but it doesn't stand much of a chance against "Let it Go," the overwhelming powerhouse of an otherwise lukewarm Diz delivery.

Want: "The Moon Song"
Will: "Let it Go"

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees:

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Captain Phillips

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lone Survivor

I strongly disagree with the sound design of Gravity because in real life sound doesn't travel in space. All of the dragons I've met, on the other hand, make an awful lot of noise.

Want: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Nominees:

All Is Lost

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Lone Survivor

Ditto, y'all.

Want: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:

• Dallas Buyers Club
• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
• The Lone Ranger

I'm actually working alongside a couple of Oscar-winning makeup artists on my current job, guys who specialize in truly amazing horror effects. This year will probably go a different direction, though, as the more realistic transformations of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto through their disparate HIV+ experiences help make the film engrossing,

Want: Dallas Buyers Club
Will: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Nominees:

• American Hustle
• The Great Gatsby
• 12 Years a Slave
• The Grandmaster
• The Invisible Woman

My favorite wardrobe choices of the year came from Her, so I was sad that it wasn't nominated. Grandpa pants, 4eva! As for the remaining nominees, possibly a win for American Hustle (Hooray cleavage!), but I'm leaning to one of the older period pieces in preference and prediction.

Want: 12 Years a Slave
Will: 12 Years a Slave

Best Achievement in Production Design
Nominees:

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• The Great Gatsby
• Her

Again, I adored the design of Her, which used bold colors and quirky, minimalist details to envision the not-too-distant future in a unique yet believable way. That said, there are a lot of strong contenders in this one, and my prediction goes to Catherine Martin, who has already picked up an Oscar working with Baz Luhrmann on Moulin Rouge!, and this year added something extra to the garish decadence of the Roaring Twenties.

Want: Her
Will: The Great Gatsby

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:

• Gravity
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Iron Man 3
• The Lone Ranger
• Star Trek Into Darkness

As with Life of Pi last year, I wasn't as over the moon about Gravity as everybody else, but those criticisms lie mostly in the acting, pacing, and story departments, and the visual effects and technological creativity make for an otherworldly spectacle.

Want: Gravity
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:

• 12 Years a Slave -- Joe Walker
• American Hustle -- Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers
• Gravity -- Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger
• Captain Phillips -- Christopher Rouse
• Dallas Buyers Club -- Martin Pensa, John Mac McMurphy

Just when you thought the long-take was becoming blasé, this year breathed new life into it, with Gravity, 12 Years, and The Wolf of Wall Street, notably putting extended tracking shots to strong use. As a whole, however, editing should help drive the film forward while deftly keeping lots of threads together and not confusing the audience.

Want: American Hustle 
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:

• Gravity -- Emmanuel Lubezki
• Inside Llewyn Davis -- Bruno Delbonnel
• Nebraska -- Phedon Papamichael
• Prisoners -- Roger Deakins
• The Grandmaster -- Philippe Le Sourd

Special shout to Le Sourd and director Wong Kar Wai, an undisputed master but not normally thought of as an action director, who matched glowing canvases with some of the most breathtakingly lit fight scenes I've ever seen in The Grandmaster. In the rain. Whoa.

That said, I'm a sucker for Deakins, who is quickly turning into the Susan Lucci of cinematography...11th nomination without a win. He'll have to wait a little longer, as Lubzeki will bring this home for his revolutionary way of thinking inside the box.

Want: Prisoners
Will: Gravity

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Nominees:

• American Hustle -- Eric Singer, David O. Russell
• Blue Jasmine -- Woody Allen
• Her -- Spike Jonze
• Nebraska -- Bob Nelson
• Dallas Buyers Club -- Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

I never do that great at picking the screenplay winners, but I'll narrow this down by saying there is no way in hell Woody Allen wins this year with all of the controversy surrounding him lately. Nebraska is great, but gets a wheel stuck spinning in the mud from time to time, so I think it's a three-way toss up between the other three.

Want: Her
Will: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees:

• Before Midnight -- Richard Linklater
• Captain Phillips -- Billy Ray
• 12 Years a Slave -- John Ridley
• The Wolf of Wall Street -- Terence Winter
• Philomena -- Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

Possibly 12 Years a Slave, but instead I'm crossing my fingers for a special achievement award or sorts for Linklater's "Before Trilogy," perhaps the essential cinematic rumination of love of a generation.

Want: Before Midnight
Will: Before Midnight

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees:

• The Croods
• Despicable Me 2
• Ernest & Celestine
• Frozen
• The Wind Rises

I thought Frozen was a little tepid compared to some of Disney's best works, and would love to see Miyazaki-san take home his second Oscar for what might be his last film at the helm.

Want: The Wind Rises
Will: Frozen

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees:

• The Broken Circle Breakdown -- Felix Van Groeningen (Belgium)
• The Missing Picture -- Rithy Panh (Cambodia)
• The Hunt -- Thomas Vinterberg (Denmark)
• The Great Beauty -- Paolo Sorrentino (Italy)
• Omar -- Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)

No clear-cut winner here, with the excellent The Hunt on the outside looking in at The Great Beauty, which can most succinctly be described as 21st century Fellini on crack, and The Broken Circle Breakdown, which is what you get when you mix Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind with a terminally ill child, tattoos, dead birds, and bluegrass.

Want: The Broken Circle Breakdown
Will: The Great Beauty

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

• Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
• Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
• Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
• Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
• June Squibb for Nebraska

I will never again underestimate JLaw after last year, but I'm going a different direction anyway.

Want: Nyong'o
Will: Nyong'o

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

• Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
• Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
• Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
• Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

No question. Holy lock.

Want: Leto
Will: Leto

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

• Christian Bale for American Hustle
• Bruce Dern for Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
• Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Perhaps the biggest question mark of the show. I've been preaching Leo for a while now, but we're nearing post time and I'm hedging my bets on a razor thin margin.

Want: DiCaprio
Will: McConaughey

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

• Amy Adams for American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock for Gravity
• Judi Dench for Philomena
• Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

Meryl's just bein' Meryl as always, even if she wouldn't eat the fucking fish, bitch. In the meantime, dammit, can we give Amy Adams an Oscar already? She's up against it again this year, against a quartet of ladies who already have one. It's going to be Blanchett's, though, and deservedly so. (PS. Ugh: Bullock. Why?)

Want: Adams
Will: Blanchett

Best Achievement in Directing

Nominees:

• Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
• Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell for American Hustle
• Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
• Alexander Payne for Nebraska

I see another two-way race between two young visionaries, and the innovation and absolute jaw-dropping spectacle pushing the director's award to Gravity.

Want: McQueen
Will: Cuarón

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees:

• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• 12 Years a Slave
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Her was my favorite film of the year, hands down. It's not a perfect film and definitely won't connect with everybody, but it's fully realized in all of the little details and delivers love and laughter and social commentary and heartbreak and fantasy and reality in a sparkling, beautiful package.

12 Years a Slave, though, is the best film made this year, and the most important.

A breakthrough triumph for arguably the best up-and-coming director making movies these days.

Want: Her
Will: 12 Years a Slave

Whew, just made it. Enjoy the show!