Breakneck Oscars Thing 2014

Well, a lot has happened since I last gave this space any attention, and I’m a little surprised it hasn’t up and run off with another fella. Hooray to the unending preservation of digital information. First things: I no longer live in the Midwest! After much deliberation I decided to take this show on the road and I have relocated to the City of Angels. I documented my cross-country trip with a GoPro Hero3 in tow and spent the first couple of months in California crashed on a buddy’s couch, looking for housing, starting the job search, and furiously cobbling together a travelogue/cinematic homage combining the resulting footage with my digitized film collection. I’m pretty proud of the end result, which I entitled “West & South,” so please click on through to ch-ch-check it out!

I’m back here because Oscar season is almost past, and I’ve been getting asked if a rundown is in order this year. This week was pretty busy -- I'm working long, fruitful days on a "demon horror fantasy noir" -- so I’m not going to be able watch the ceremony this year and won't be able to be as in-depth as last year. Hey, take what you can get, m'kay?

Here are the numbers:

• 57 different feature films and shorts received nominations this year... (of which I've seen 52)
• ...resulting in 121 total nominations (of which I can account for 116)
• Last year I was 43/52 and 113/122 last year, respectively, and was about 65% on predictions. (Annual caveat: I am always terrible at predicting the shorts.) 

The five nominees I haven't been able to see are:

• The Book Thief - nominated for Best Original Score
• Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom -- nominated for Best Original Song
• Ernest & Celestine - nominated for Best Animated Feature
• The Missing Picture -- nominated for Best Foreign Language Film
• Omar -- nominated for Best Foreign Language Film

While there are plenty of movies worth seeing, in my opinion this has been a fairly weak year at the top and will be a pretty tough year to predict. Additionally, since the expansion to 9+ best picture nominees a few years ago, this is the first time there were no standouts from either Foreign Language or Animation to earn any "Big 6*/9**" nominations and maybe foreshadow the category win (as has been the case the last few years with Amour (nominated for Best Pic, Actress, Director, Screenplay...won Best Foreign Language Film), A Separation (Best Original Screenplay nom...won Best FL Film), Toy Story 3 & Up (both had Best Pic and Screenplay noms...Best Animated Feature wins).

* Best Picture, Director, and the four acting categories...

** ...plus Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, and Cinematography

When necessary, as before, I will make a point to differentiate between my favorite and my prediction. And away we go!

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:

• “Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?”
• “The Voorman Problem”
• “That Wasn’t Me”
• “Just Before Losing Everything”
• “Helium”

The first two are funny little crowd pleasers, and I especially loved the twisted simplicity of "The Voorman Problem." The other three take us into tough territory, with African child soldiers, domestic violence, and pediatric terminal illness on the plate, respectively. I'm going with the one that I felt unfolded the most compellingly, with slow, building tension.

Prediction: "Just Before Losing Everything"
 

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:

• “Feral”
• “Get a Horse!”
• “Mr. Hublot”
• “Possessions”
• “Room on the Broom”

I feel it's probably a two horse race, and Disney's "Horse!" is certainly the most widely seen, since it played theatrically in front of Frozen. It's a fast-paced whirlwind of classic cartoon gags, for sure, but it doesn't hold a candle to "Mr. Hublot's" detailed steampunk world-building and visual storytelling.

Prediction: "Mr. Hublot"

Best Documentary, Short Subject
Nominees:

• “Cavedigger”
• “Facing Fear”
• “Karama Has No Walls”
• “The Lady In Number 6”
• “Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall”

Alice Herz-Sommer, the subject of "The Lady in Number 6," just passed away last week at the age of 110, having survived the Holocaust while playing piano in a Czech concentration camp. Sympathy vote might help push it over "Karama Has No Walls," an absolutely astounding first-person video account of a turning point in the Yemeni uprising and a perfect companion piece to this year's essential feature documentary, The Square.

Prediction: "The Lady in Number 6"

Best Documentary, Feature

Nominees:

• The Act of Killing
• Cutie and the Boxer
• Dirty Wars
• The Square
• 20 Feet from Stardom

20 Feet from stardom is the mainstream, populist choice, but while it is great, it doesn't have the vitality and importance of the other two top contenders. As I just mentioned, The Square is absolutely breathtaking and a living, breathing document of a revolution that is cycling through triumphs and failures even as we speak. The Act of Killing is like no documentary I've ever seen, the closest being perhaps the bizarre, quintessential Japanese doc, The Emperor's Naked Army Marches On. While it pushes the envelope, it might be a tad too controversial for voters.

Additional note: All five nominees are streaming on Netflix, so I encourage everyone to check them out when you get a chance.

Want: The Act of Killing
Will: The Square

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Click through for score samples

Nominees:

• The Book Thief -- John Williams
• Gravity -- Steven Price
• Her -- William Butler, Andy Koyama
• Saving Mr. Banks -- Thomas Newman
• Philomena  -- Alexandre Desplat

Desplat is one of my favorites working these days, but there has been a recent turn to hip, young rock stars scoring hip, young films, and Arcade Fire did a pretty damn fine job with "Her," even if they were way better before they, like completely sold out and stuff. Gchuhh, I know, right?

Want: Philomena
Will: Her

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:

Despicable Me 2 -- “Happy"

Frozen -- "Let It Go"

Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom -- "Ordinary Love"

Her -- "The Moon Song"

[Also, Nominated, then disqualified -- Alone Yet Not Alone -- "Alone Yet Not Alone" -- 
Read the story behind this controversy.]

I'd go with the breathy, twee simplicity of "The Moon Song," but it doesn't stand much of a chance against "Let it Go," the overwhelming powerhouse of an otherwise lukewarm Diz delivery.

Want: "The Moon Song"
Will: "Let it Go"

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees:

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Captain Phillips

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lone Survivor

I strongly disagree with the sound design of Gravity because in real life sound doesn't travel in space. All of the dragons I've met, on the other hand, make an awful lot of noise.

Want: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Nominees:

All Is Lost

Captain Phillips

Gravity

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Lone Survivor

Ditto, y'all.

Want: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:

• Dallas Buyers Club
• Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
• The Lone Ranger

I'm actually working alongside a couple of Oscar-winning makeup artists on my current job, guys who specialize in truly amazing horror effects. This year will probably go a different direction, though, as the more realistic transformations of Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto through their disparate HIV+ experiences help make the film engrossing,

Want: Dallas Buyers Club
Will: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Achievement in Costume Design

Nominees:

• American Hustle
• The Great Gatsby
• 12 Years a Slave
• The Grandmaster
• The Invisible Woman

My favorite wardrobe choices of the year came from Her, so I was sad that it wasn't nominated. Grandpa pants, 4eva! As for the remaining nominees, possibly a win for American Hustle (Hooray cleavage!), but I'm leaning to one of the older period pieces in preference and prediction.

Want: 12 Years a Slave
Will: 12 Years a Slave

Best Achievement in Production Design
Nominees:

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• The Great Gatsby
• Her

Again, I adored the design of Her, which used bold colors and quirky, minimalist details to envision the not-too-distant future in a unique yet believable way. That said, there are a lot of strong contenders in this one, and my prediction goes to Catherine Martin, who has already picked up an Oscar working with Baz Luhrmann on Moulin Rouge!, and this year added something extra to the garish decadence of the Roaring Twenties.

Want: Her
Will: The Great Gatsby

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:

• Gravity
• The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
• Iron Man 3
• The Lone Ranger
• Star Trek Into Darkness

As with Life of Pi last year, I wasn't as over the moon about Gravity as everybody else, but those criticisms lie mostly in the acting, pacing, and story departments, and the visual effects and technological creativity make for an otherworldly spectacle.

Want: Gravity
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:

• 12 Years a Slave -- Joe Walker
• American Hustle -- Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers
• Gravity -- Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger
• Captain Phillips -- Christopher Rouse
• Dallas Buyers Club -- Martin Pensa, John Mac McMurphy

Just when you thought the long-take was becoming blasé, this year breathed new life into it, with Gravity, 12 Years, and The Wolf of Wall Street, notably putting extended tracking shots to strong use. As a whole, however, editing should help drive the film forward while deftly keeping lots of threads together and not confusing the audience.

Want: American Hustle 
Will: Gravity

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:

• Gravity -- Emmanuel Lubezki
• Inside Llewyn Davis -- Bruno Delbonnel
• Nebraska -- Phedon Papamichael
• Prisoners -- Roger Deakins
• The Grandmaster -- Philippe Le Sourd

Special shout to Le Sourd and director Wong Kar Wai, an undisputed master but not normally thought of as an action director, who matched glowing canvases with some of the most breathtakingly lit fight scenes I've ever seen in The Grandmaster. In the rain. Whoa.

That said, I'm a sucker for Deakins, who is quickly turning into the Susan Lucci of cinematography...11th nomination without a win. He'll have to wait a little longer, as Lubzeki will bring this home for his revolutionary way of thinking inside the box.

Want: Prisoners
Will: Gravity

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Nominees:

• American Hustle -- Eric Singer, David O. Russell
• Blue Jasmine -- Woody Allen
• Her -- Spike Jonze
• Nebraska -- Bob Nelson
• Dallas Buyers Club -- Craig Borten, Melisa Wallack

I never do that great at picking the screenplay winners, but I'll narrow this down by saying there is no way in hell Woody Allen wins this year with all of the controversy surrounding him lately. Nebraska is great, but gets a wheel stuck spinning in the mud from time to time, so I think it's a three-way toss up between the other three.

Want: Her
Will: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Nominees:

• Before Midnight -- Richard Linklater
• Captain Phillips -- Billy Ray
• 12 Years a Slave -- John Ridley
• The Wolf of Wall Street -- Terence Winter
• Philomena -- Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope

Possibly 12 Years a Slave, but instead I'm crossing my fingers for a special achievement award or sorts for Linklater's "Before Trilogy," perhaps the essential cinematic rumination of love of a generation.

Want: Before Midnight
Will: Before Midnight

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees:

• The Croods
• Despicable Me 2
• Ernest & Celestine
• Frozen
• The Wind Rises

I thought Frozen was a little tepid compared to some of Disney's best works, and would love to see Miyazaki-san take home his second Oscar for what might be his last film at the helm.

Want: The Wind Rises
Will: Frozen

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

Nominees:

• The Broken Circle Breakdown -- Felix Van Groeningen (Belgium)
• The Missing Picture -- Rithy Panh (Cambodia)
• The Hunt -- Thomas Vinterberg (Denmark)
• The Great Beauty -- Paolo Sorrentino (Italy)
• Omar -- Hany Abu-Assad (Palestine)

No clear-cut winner here, with the excellent The Hunt on the outside looking in at The Great Beauty, which can most succinctly be described as 21st century Fellini on crack, and The Broken Circle Breakdown, which is what you get when you mix Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind with a terminally ill child, tattoos, dead birds, and bluegrass.

Want: The Broken Circle Breakdown
Will: The Great Beauty

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

• Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine
• Julia Roberts for August: Osage County
• Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
• Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
• June Squibb for Nebraska

I will never again underestimate JLaw after last year, but I'm going a different direction anyway.

Want: Nyong'o
Will: Nyong'o

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees:

• Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
• Bradley Cooper for American Hustle
• Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
• Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
• Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

No question. Holy lock.

Want: Leto
Will: Leto

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees:

• Christian Bale for American Hustle
• Bruce Dern for Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
• Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Perhaps the biggest question mark of the show. I've been preaching Leo for a while now, but we're nearing post time and I'm hedging my bets on a razor thin margin.

Want: DiCaprio
Will: McConaughey

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees:

• Amy Adams for American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock for Gravity
• Judi Dench for Philomena
• Meryl Streep for August: Osage County

Meryl's just bein' Meryl as always, even if she wouldn't eat the fucking fish, bitch. In the meantime, dammit, can we give Amy Adams an Oscar already? She's up against it again this year, against a quartet of ladies who already have one. It's going to be Blanchett's, though, and deservedly so. (PS. Ugh: Bullock. Why?)

Want: Adams
Will: Blanchett

Best Achievement in Directing

Nominees:

• Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity
• Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell for American Hustle
• Martin Scorsese for The Wolf of Wall Street
• Alexander Payne for Nebraska

I see another two-way race between two young visionaries, and the innovation and absolute jaw-dropping spectacle pushing the director's award to Gravity.

Want: McQueen
Will: Cuarón

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees:

• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• 12 Years a Slave
• The Wolf of Wall Street

Her was my favorite film of the year, hands down. It's not a perfect film and definitely won't connect with everybody, but it's fully realized in all of the little details and delivers love and laughter and social commentary and heartbreak and fantasy and reality in a sparkling, beautiful package.

12 Years a Slave, though, is the best film made this year, and the most important.

A breakthrough triumph for arguably the best up-and-coming director making movies these days.

Want: Her
Will: 12 Years a Slave

Whew, just made it. Enjoy the show!